Finally, A Link Between Iraq and Terrorism

Gene Healy wonders whether we have already won against Al-Qaeda:

Consider Malvo and Muhammed. Two none-too-bright jokers with a $300 rifle and no formal training repeatedly shut down the Beltway and terrorized Greater Washington for almost a month. If America really is riddled with sleeper cells, why not activate another 20 guys? Ten two-man-shooter teams, two or three different cities, months before they’re all caught —- the disruption and terror it would sow would be enormous. As on September 11, America would be full of fear from its north to its south to its west to its east. If I can figure this out, so can they. So what gives?

Maybe (shhhhh) —- maybe there aren’t that many of them. Maybe they’re not nearly as rich in suicidal maniacs as Hamas and the Al-Asqa brigades. Maybe we’ve killed a good portion of them, and put a good bit more on the run. Maybe —- just maybe —- we’ve won.

Then, he speculates that war against Iraq might increase the hatred of Arabs against us and as a result the number of terrorists:

None of that is to downplay the threat that Al Qaeda could represent, if we handle this struggle as foolishly as I fear we might. In this much, Brink is surely right: a free society is vulnerable at an incalculable number of points. And therefore, as Robert Wright has pointed out: it matters greatly whether there are 100 Richard Reids, or 10,000 of them.

A hundred Richard Reids means an occasional terrorist gets lucky. It’s a background risk we factor into what we do, and then largely forget about. But 10,000 Richard Reids means America becomes more like Israel, more like the greater Washington DC area for those weeks in October when the snipers ran free. Ten thousand Richard Reids means that every time you kiss your wife and kids goodbye, the thought crosses your mind: “will I see them again?”

We may have won this round, but we can still lose. We can lose by fighting this war so as to multiply the number of Richard Reids.

I’m continually amazed and annoyed by ideological compatriots who understand the Laffer Curve and buy into rational choice theory and yet stubbornly, myopically insist on a static theory of terrorist recruitment. “They’re crazy, and they hate us.” Yes, but won’t certain policies create more of them? Like, if we conquer Iraq, take over its oil fields, forcefully suppress ethnic separatism, and use the country as a staging point to bring about regime change in Iran and Syria, won’t that create more of them? “No, they’ve got all the reasons they need to hate us. Did I mention that they’re crazy?”

Go read his whole post.