Governor Schwarzenegger

Interesting election there in California yesterday. I didn’t like Gray Davis, so it’s good he’s out. However, I am very unimpressed with Arnold Schwarzenegger. I must admit that I am fond of intellectuals and policy wonks in politics and no one would classify Schwarzenegger as one. The Terminator was big on platitudes and vague statements and shied away from specific policy discussions.

I am not outraged at all at the idea of a recall though. Coming from a Parliamentary tradition (when the army wasn’t playing politics), I don’t mind elections happening at any time as opposed to the US system of elections at a fixed time only.

I am always interested in the numbers in elections as well as in the exit poll data.

I think Bustamante turned out to be a pathetic candidate. He lost the vote of those who say they vote on issues (narrowly) as well as those who claim to vote on personality and character (by a big margin). Also, he could only garner about two-thirds of the anti-recall vote. On the other hand, Schwarzenegger wasn’t good on the issues either: 63% thought that Schwarzenegger did not address the issues in enough detail.

Bustamante got most of his votes from people who voted against the recall, but 6% of recall supporters say they voted for Bustamante. Similarly 9% of recall opponents voted for Schwarzenegger.

It’s fun to try to figure out what would have happened in a straight Schwarzenegger-Davis fight. Schwarzenegger got about 150,000 more votes than the anti-recall ones. However, 9% of the anti-recall voters (about 318,000) expressed a preference for Davis over Schwarzenegger. So we can say that Davis got 168,000 more votes than Schwarzenegger. Not so fast, DonBoy. If it had been a 2-way contest between Davis and Schwarzenegger, McClintock would not have been in the race and about 570,000 of his supporters (according to my calculations from the exit poll data) would have voted for Schwarzenegger. Therefore, my conclusion is that Schwarzenegger would have won by about 400,000 votes. If on the other hand, the recall had all the current candidates plus Davis, it would have been real close. Keeping the voting trends constant, Davis would have won under such a scenario. But people would have voted differently then.

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Categorized as Politics

By Zack

Dad, gadget guy, bookworm, political animal, global nomad, cyclist, hiker, tennis player, photographer

6 comments

  1. I have a big problem with the recall itself. But I was talking to a guy from a parliamentary system and he said the same thing (what’s the big deal?) I guess for Americans (who aren’t looking for partisan gain) it feels like cheating. If Arnold wantd to be governor why didn’t he run last year? Did all Cali’s problems spring up in the last 9 months? did Arnold not realize then that either Gray Davis couldn’t “lead” or he could? No, he didn’t think he could win but realized that maybe he could win this short, no primary contest where he didn’t need a majority. It was a race tailor made for him.

    Our electoral system is based on the idea that you run for office and then you govern (I am sympathetic towards Euro style parliament and proportional representation, but that is another argument.) What I’m worried that California is headed towards is a state of perpetual politics, where tracking polls determine policy becuase the clock is always ticking. And on top of that, the problems they have, if they are to be fixed will require unpopular solutions (raising taxes or cutting programs) and perpetual recall (or credible threats) make those impossible.

  2. Whoever writes Schwarzenegger’s speeches needs to be fired. My dad exclaimed, “This man has nothing to say!” after listening to a speech that sounded more like a list of Oscar-acceptance-ceremony “thank yous.” And he’s so vague on policy issues. Platitudes all, I definitely agree with you.

  3. DonBoy here: Zack, I actually agree with what you’re saying. My number-crunching is not meant to show that Davis would have won vs. Arnold head-to-head — it’s possible, but as you say the election would have been so different that you can’t figure it out from the information we have.

  4. Wes: I agree. In parliamentary systems, the head of the government is usually elected by the parliament, thus providing some cushion against policies tracking polls that you mention.

    yasmine: That’s the impression I get as well. It’s platitudes and one-liner jokes.

    DonBoy: I know. I probably shouldn’t have worded the link to you that way.

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