In the past few years, a thought has grown in my mind. The seed of it, a nod to inevitability, long layed dormant, but the events of the past few years prompted germination.
The steady erosion of the nation’s manufacturing base and malignant mediocrity of the nation’s primary educational system serve as the soil in which it took root. But, the rain of events following the attacks on the 11th of September brought forth the sprout. First, the shock of the attacks combined with the current administration’s financial recklessness to produce the largest deficits in the nation’s history. As one might expect, the public and private sectors of the nation turned their attention to defensive measures, measures which may protect and will certainly prove costly. Then, the current administration’s arrogant misuse of American Military might to dipose one of many tyrants, secure the free flow of oil and give a swift wack to the hornet’s nest that is the middle east fertilized it.
Rooted in long-standing systemic deficiencies, watered by the current economic downturn and fertilized by growing arrogance at the highest levels of government, the seed sprouted and bloomed. I find the resulting question holding a place in the sun of my attention. Is the United States in a fundamental decline?
Offshore Outsourcing and Global Living Standards
Andy Grove, of Intel fame, spoke out at a recent technology summit in Washington about the current trend towards offshore outsourcing and how it’s causing the US to slowly but surely lose its edge in the tech sector. A particularly…
Auto-trackback from memigo.com
BBC article was added to memigo. Thanks!
Follow trackback to find related articles…
largest deficits in the nation’s history is an illusive term: the inflation has never been acounted.
Is the United States in a fundamental decline?
A very dangerous question to ask, answer and think about.
relative decline. i don’t think fundamental. decline will be signalled when highly educated potentional immigrants like you start choosing canada, australia and NZ in preference to the USA.
razib:
While most everyone in America is an immigrant, my family arrived on these shores roughly one century ago.
Kianoush: You are of course correct. I would say that instead of inflation, share of GDP is a good measure for deficits.
The budget deficit for 2005 is projected to be 5% of GDP. Since 1930, the only years where the budget deficit was higher were 1934 (5.9%), 1936 (5.5%), the war years of 1942-45 (14.2%, 30.3%, 22.8% and 21.5%), 1946 (7.2%), 1983 (6%), 1985 (5.1%) and 1986 (5.0%).
This White House budget document has all kinds of numbers.
I would argue that this deficit is different than the previous ones (except may be the Reagan ones).
Jalal: Why dangerous?
razib: There is some movement of immigrant away from the US and towards Canada etc., but can’t say if it’s significant.
Captain Arrrgh: OK so to tackle the question, I have no idea whether the US is in decline, fundamental or not. I am not even sure we have any real way of telling before it’s obvious.
But since this is a weblog where idle speculation is king and a comment box can be even worse, I would say that the US is set up for a decline, though I agree with razib that it’s a relative decline and not a fundamental one.
The thing is that the hegemonic position, economically and militarily, that the US is in right now is unprecedented. As they say, there’s nowhere to go but down. However, I don’t think internal factors like those you pointed out in your post are as important as external ones. My guess is that other parts of the world will be catching up to the US in some fields. Also, no one likes a hyperpower and states will try to get together to frustrate US plans.
What will actually happen though is anyone’s guess and won’t be agreed upon until history is written.
highly educated potentional immigrants like you start choosing canada, australia and NZ in preference to the USA.
In the future, brain-drain is going to matter less as there will be so many educated potential immigrants who won’t be able to immigrate anywhere. If nothing else, population increases and the rise of the literacy rate is going to educated the number of educated people, so it’s going to matter less if a small percentage go abroad to the west, even if the west is taking in as many immigrants as it can.
KO: I think that will vary from country to country. The relevant variables are persecution, economy, etc. It’ll take at least a few generations for most of the world to be in such better shape that brain drain is not an issue any more.
Offshore Outsourcing and Global Living Standards
Andy Grove, of Intel fame, spoke out at a recent technology summit in Washington about the current trend towards offshore outsourcing and how it’s causing the US to slowly but surely lose its edge in the tech sector. A particularly…
Offshore Outsourcing and Global Living Standards
Andy Grove, of Intel fame, spoke out at a recent technology summit in Washington about the current trend towards offshore outsourcing and how it’s causing the US to slowly but surely lose its edge in the tech sector. A particularly…